Michael Stuart: J-G Pageau and the Coyle Comparable

I love Pageau, but they absolutely can’t sign him to a deal like that.

I love Pageau, but they absolutely can’t sign him to a deal like that.
- sensarmy_11

Agreed.

I love Pageau, but they absolutely can’t sign him to a deal like that.
- sensarmy_11

This has David Clarkson written all over it...minus the water bottle protection.

This has David Clarkson written all over it...minus the water bottle protection.
- AdamFrench

Pageau is a MUCH better player than clarkson. The Clarkson deal was awful the SECOND it was signed. Pageau is a bit overpaid at 5, but at 4 I’d think he was a bargain.........but I get the point you’re trying to make.

Pageau is a MUCH better player than clarkson. The Clarkson deal was awful the SECOND it was signed. Pageau is a bit overpaid at 5, but at 4 I’d think he was a bargain.........but I get the point you’re trying to make.
- sensarmy_11

Yes. I love Pageau. I feel like any team having him as their number 3 is an instant contender, but at 5+...yeesh. Unless this is him finding his "true potential" type of late bloomer, then he's going to be a disappointment to any team paying 4+ on a long term deal.

Yes. I love Pageau. I feel like any team having him as their number 3 is an instant contender, but at 5+...yeesh. Unless this is him finding his "true potential" type of late bloomer, then he's going to be a disappointment to any team paying 4+ on a long term deal.
- AdamFrench

Guys like Pageau are tough, because everybody loves them. They're great. You like having them on your team. That, in turn, drives their value up. The issue is that, once that happens, you can find guys who bring very similar attributes on the open market for half the price.

Guys like Pageau are tough, because everybody loves them. They're great. You like having them on your team. That, in turn, drives their value up. The issue is that, once that happens, you can find guys who bring very similar attributes on the open market for half the price.
- Michael_Stuart

I think Parker Kelly will be a good pageau replacement.

Johnny for Brady?

So now everyone agrees with me that $5M is an overpayment???

So now everyone agrees with me that $5M is an overpayment???
- PavohnDatsvares

Nobody ever disagreed that it was an overpayment......just disagreed when you said he’s never get it.

Pageau is playing for his next contract for sure. I'm always wary when a player's stock rises so high in a contract year. Coyle's expensive signing *might* look good if he is perceived as the heir apparent to the 2C post-Krejci, but Pageau's future is generally consensus to be bottom 6. Both he and Boro are in this situation - hometown players who frankly have never been elite, but are both having great years before they go UFA. If Pageau is signed for more than 4*4, it won't look good if he regresses to his norm, and he's already 27 so you kind of know what you are buying at this pt. If Boro gets more than 1.5*3, same deal. Love, love both players and would love to keep them in Sens jerseys, but I don't believe they will be put into positions to succeed in the future like they are this year given our pipeline. I know players want and deserve their money, but sometimes bad expensive contracts can have a real negative impact on your career - look at Lu, Clarkson, Lucic, Ryan... so there's something to be said to pay people what they are worth historically, rather than in the immediate. Caution, Pierre.

Nobody ever disagreed that it was an overpayment......just disagreed when you said he’s never get it.
- sensarmy_11

Exactly.

Pageau is a career 3rd line center who has averaged 33 points a year. While he is above average defensively, he is below average offensively. At 27 years old right now, he is due to start regressing in 2 to 3 years and a long contract is a very bad idea.

I'd be fine with a 3 x $5M contract, even $5.5M a year. If he wants more term / dollars, trade him for picks/prospects.

Trade
1st rounder
Mid level prospect

Nobody ever disagreed that it was an overpayment......just disagreed when you said he’s never get it.
- sensarmy_11

I later conceded that based on a perfect storm of circumstances he could break 5, and that my main gripe was Stuart stating he was a $5-7M player. Which I still maintain is absolute insanity.

I later conceded that based on a perfect storm of circumstances he could break 5, and that my main gripe was Stuart stating he was a $5-7M player. Which I still maintain is absolute insanity.
- PavohnDatsvares

The question was what I figured he could get on July 1, not what I think he's actually worth to a team. He's not worth what he'd get on July 1, but most July 1 signings aren't.

If you're conceding that he can break $5M due to the circumstances, your position is the same as mine...

The question was what I figured he could get on July 1, not what I think he's actually worth to a team. He's not worth what he'd get on July 1, but most July 1 signings aren't.

If you're conceding that he can break $5M due to the circumstances, your position is the same as mine...
- Michael_Stuart

I love you too much to argue, so I'm dropping it. Xoxo

So now everyone agrees with me that $5M is an overpayment???
- PavohnDatsvares

That's as obvious as saying colin white's deal was a massive overpayment

That's as obvious as saying colin white's deal was a massive overpayment
- Tumbleweed

or marner's was, or matthews' was, or tavares' was........

I think Parker Kelly will be a good pageau replacement.
- sensarmy_11

I'd like to see NOrris on the third line next year, if all things continue to go well with his development,.

On Pageau, I'd totally be happy with a $4.0-4.5M/year deal for 5 years or less.

or marner's was, or matthews' was, or tavares' was........
- sensarmy_11

There is a difference between good and overpaid vs. bad and overpaid.

There is a difference between good and overpaid vs. bad and overpaid.
- Tumbleweed

Are you seriously calling pageau a bad player?

He only has 2 goals less than Matthews, and
more than Tavares or Marner.